From the Prototype Newsletter of La Política
“It’s early,” responded several analysts, consultants and media buyers interviewed for this article when asked about the level of political ad spending in Hispanic media. Trueenough, since the most expensive primaries are scheduled for early next year. However, there are several trends pointing in the direction of increased Hispanic media buys in this election cycle.
According to data compiled by TNS Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, current political spending on Spanish-language televisionis up sharply for the year to date as a percentage of overall political television spending.Specifically, TNS estimates $17 million has been spent so far in 2007 on political ads in Spanish-language broadcast television nationwide. That represents 4.8 percent of the $350 million spent so far overall on such advertising. It’s a sharp contrast with 2006 when advertising on Spanish-language television was $60.9 million, or 2.5 percent of the total spent on political television spots: $2.4 billion. These figures include spending by political candidates and organizations at the municipal, state and national levels.
However, to date, the combined spending of just the presidential candidates on Spanish-language media is insignificant. A number of experts said this will change towards the end of this year, and more so early in 2008. “Nationally you see both the Republican and Democratic parties I would say competing somewhat equally over the Spanish-speaking population and Hispanic voters,” said Evan Tracey COO of TNS Media Campaign Media Analysis Group. Later, he added “Certainly, Univision and the others are all in a fairly good position to do pretty well in this upcoming cycle.”
Ray Rodríguez, Univision president and COO, stated in August during the network’s second quarter conference call with analysts, “We remain focused on going after a larger piece of the ad spending pie, including political advertising dollars in the crucial 2008 election, as the candidates increasingly recognize that Hispanic Americans will play an unprecedented role in electing the country’s next president and other political leaders.”
Tom Castro, vice chairman of Border Media Partners with 33 radio stations targeting Latinos in Texas, has a different perspective than most because he both spends and receives money from Spanish-language political advertising. Castro sits on theboard of directors of the political advocacy organization New Democratic Network. “I believe that the plans people are making indicate that this will be a watershed election cycle for advertising in Hispanic media to reach Latinos by political candidatesof all persuasions,” he says.
Talk of a ‘watershed’ this early on is bold, but Castro cites several factors to bolster his argument. First, the growing number of Latino voters and their interest in the immigration debate. And, equally important, he says is the shift in the calendar of party primaries.Iowa and New Hampshire still reign supreme but much more heavily Hispanic Florida and Nevada have moved up the primary calendar. The conventional wisdom is that Hispanics potentially represent a swing vote and that neither party has sewn up the support of Latinos. The competition for that contested vote will drive additional spending. More money is being raised on the Democratic side, which means the total pool of money available for media buys has increased. Lastly, Castro points to what he describes as the success of a $6 million Spanish-language media buy by the New Democratic Network in 2004 and a 2006 campaign that cost a “couple million” and ran during World Cup matches primarily on Galavisión and TeleFutura.
Throw in Univision’s media coverage of the network’s voter registration campaign and Castro is not alone in expecting a banner year in terms of political ad sales on Spanish-language media outlets. Lorena Chambers, CEO and lead political strategist of Chambers López &Gaitán, strikes a cautionary note. She tells sales reps of the Spanish-language media firms that come knocking on her door. “We need research showing how your media outlet reaches Hispanic voters. Not potential voters, not eligible voters but registered voters and even more precisely those with a history of voting.” Later, she adds “the campaigns want to do the right thing but they need the numbers to back that up.” Azteca América in conjunction with one of its affiliate groups, Una Vez Más, commissioned a survey ahead of a road trip this summer to pitch specialist political media buying firms. The survey laid out the percentage of viewers who had voted in the past year and for which party. Alex Varel, the Dallas-based AztecaAmerica vice president and director of sales, says he received more interest from Republican media buyers than their Democratic counterparts.
“Bush set anew precedent being able to appeal and reach Hispanics and that opened alot of eyes” said Varel. He went in thinking the 19 affiliates in Texas would be a strong selling point, but “the Democratic shops for the most part said ‘Texas is red. We can’t do anything about it’, which was a bit disappointing.” Overall, broadcast television will certainly continue to get the lion’s shareof political ad spending.
In general, cable is cited as a growth area but little mention is made of Spanish-language cable networks. When he travels to D.C., PhilipWoodie, Comcast Spotlight director of multicultural sales, tells political consultants and media strategists “Hispanic viewers don’t equal Hispanic voters. A lot of Spanish-language broadcast properties have huge, huge audiences. But guess what - if you take a look, break it down andhold their feet to the fire, how many of that big number is a Hispanic voter?” Woodie also tries to sell the notion that cable offers networks that range in appeal from Latinos who prefer Spanish to those who prefer English. It is an important point and one that Chambers stresses as well, saying “there would have to be an increase in spending in both English- and Spanish-language media. Not just Spanish.” The only problem is that English-language cable networks for Latinos have limited distribution particularly in contrast to theSpanish-language broadcast giants.
Woodie has yet to seal any deals. The same is true for Castro at Border Media Partners, who points to a 20 percentincrease in political spending in his radio network over the last few years from an admittedly small base.
“We love radio,” says Will Feltus senior vice president for media research and planning at D.C.-based National Media.“We don’t like to be on TV without being on radio at the same time. I think in some regards being on Hispanic radio may be more important than being ontelevision.” For its political business, National Media only works with Republican clients. They handled the Hispanic media buy for Bush 2004 and GovernorArnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. National Media is now working with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.
“Listening to an ad on the radio is a more intimate one-on-one communicationthan a TV spot,” added Feltus. “Hispanic voters who listen to radio,that radio station is very important to them. They have an emotional attachmentto that radio station. It is part of their regular routine and you want tobe in that space.”
Sergio Bendixen who heads up his own polling firm, Bendixen & Associates, and works as a Hispanic political strategist for the Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-New York) campaign is also bullish on radio “I think radio will be important. Number one, it received a lot of publicity during the demonstrations last year.” He added, “Spanish-language radio is perceived to reach maybe a broader audience.”
Asked about the possibility of presidential candidates making Spanish-language print media buys, Bendixen doesn’t hesitate before answering “No.”
Erich Linker, senior vice president of sales for Spanish-language newspapergroup ImpreMedia, admits “Traditionally, the money is not going to Spanish-languagenewspapers. You know, the candidates like sight, sound and emotion. A lot of the times they don’t want something that is written down.”
The extent of online advertising by the presidential campaigns to date has been the Spanish-language sections on official websites. There have been nointeractive Hispanic media buys by presidential candidates even though there area number of Latino political websites attracting heavy traffic. In coming elections this year and next, political media buyers believe Hispanic online media will mostly be part of larger package deals with broadcast networks. Across the board, Tracey at TNS Media notes an increase in the amount of political advertising specifically scripted and produced rather than just translated for Latino voters. In his view, this demonstrates that Hispanics are no longer an afterthought for political campaigns.
But, for Hispanic media outlets, the proof of interest by the presidential candidates will be in the size of the buy rather than in the creative work. For the presidential campaigns, “you can’t say for sure right now whether spending money on paid Hispanic media in Nevada, Texas and Florida isgoing to be essential to getting you the nomination,” says Adam Segal, who heads the public relations firm “The 2050 Group” and teaches ethnic marketing and political communication at Johns Hopkins University.
There are several trends pointing in the direction of significantly increased political advertising aimed at Latino voters in Congressional, municipal and state races. But, when it comes to the presidential campaigns, the final level of spending is very muchup in the air.The race can break in ways where the states with the largest Latino populations end up being decided early on, thus reducing the need for heavy Hispanic media buys. For instance, Texas could be quickly tallied in the Republican corner while California could just as quickly be listed in the Democratic corner. If Florida and NewYork swing early on for one candidate or another, then almost all the top ten Hispanic DMAs would be wiped out of contention.
At this early stage in the race, as Segal says, “You just don’t know.”
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