The Cuba Obsession

For a quarter century, Cuban-American voters in South Florida have been courted by a string of Republican candidates. The traditional playbook calls for all presidential aspirants to secure the endorsement of a prominent Cuban-American politician. Said elected official then accompanies the would-be Commander-in-Chief on a visit to a Cuban restaurant. The contender touts his anti-Castro credentials to assorted local Spanish-language media outlets, preferably while drinking high-octane Cuban coffee in front of the assembled cameras.

Last week, Senator McCain visited Little Havana’s Versailles Café where Representatives Lincoln and Mario Díaz-Balart spoke on his behalf. Also last week, McCain’s campaign placed a heavy-handed ad on local Spanish-language radio stations, which argued “Only one candidate has been a prisoner of war in communist jails - Senator John McCain. He is intimately familiar with the cruelty of communism, the way in which opponents are tortured and the most basic human rights are violated. ” The announcer goes on to describe all eleven million residents of Cuba as “political prisoners”

“Castro’s worse nightmare” is what Mel Martínez, the senator from Florida, last Friday called his Arizona colleague.” It was one of the principal reasons the Cuban American Martínez cited for endorsing McCain’s candidacy. So, Martínez’s endorsement may dent Rudy Giuliani’s large and longstanding support in the Cuban American community.

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Miami’s Not Just For Cuban Voters Anymore

From our Florida correspondent, Kirk Nielsen:

After Tuesday’s Florida primary, students of Latino electoral politics will want to know how each Republican candidate fared among Cuban-American voters. But how non-Cuban Hispanics cast their ballots could also be significant, especially if there’s a close finish, which has been known to happen in Florida.

“It is essential for candidates campaigning in Florida to demonstrate that they have a thorough understanding of Cuba-related issues, without pandering to the Cuban-American community,” says Carlos Curbelo, a Miami-based political strategist once on Fred Thompson’s payroll and now volunteering for John McCain.

But what about demonstrating savvy on issues of importance to the increasing numbers of non-Cuban Latinos in Florida? U.S. Census data indicates that the Cuban portion of South Florida’s Hispanic population has dropped below 50 percent. According to a study last year by Nielsen Media Research, folks of Cuban origin constitute 45 percent of Spanish-language television viewers in the Miami market.

That means more than half are non-Cuban Hispanics: roughly 14 percent are Puerto Rican, 8 percent Colombian, 6 percent Dominican, 6 percent Nicaraguan, 4 percent Venezuelan, 3 percent Mexican, 3 percent Peruvian, and all other Latinos less numerous. Read more …

GOP Candidates on Cuba

From our Florida correspondent, Kirk Nielsen:

With the four main contenders for the Republican presidential nomination all vying for Florida’s crucial Cuban-American voters, each is looking for a way to distinguish himself. All of them have bashed Fidel Castro and Cuba’s dictatorial system. But even Democratic candidates have done that.

Rudy Giuliani has distinguished himself by supporting calls for federal indictments of Fidel and Raul Castro for the shoot-down of two Brothers to the Rescue planes in 1996 as they flew over international waters, resulting in the deaths of four anti-Castro activists. This would represent a departure from Bush Administration’s stance. Giuliani has logged more appearances in Miami’s Cuban-American sectors than any of rivals; earlier this month he made stops in Hialeah and Little Havana while his rivals concentrated on earlier primary states.

Beyond the indictment, Giuliani’s Cuba policy platform relies on his claims to having a long-standing loyalty to the anti-Castro cause. He repeatedly cites the same two examples. As New York mayor in 1995 he excluded Fidel Castro from the guest list of a dinner for international dignitaries attending 50th anniversary celebrations for the United Nations. And, a year later he supported changing the name of a street in front of UN headquarters to Brothers to the Rescue Avenue. Giuliani spent last week trying to rally non-Hispanic backers in central and northern Florida. He heads south again this week. Read more …

Giuliani’s Spanish-Language TV Ad Campaign

From our Florida correspondent, Kirk Nielsen:

What do Rudy Giuliani and a Miami grocery store chain have in common? Each is counting on America TeVe and other Spanish-language stations to deliver the goods: Cuban-Americans.

Tuesday marks the start of Rudy Giuliani’s second week of TV advertising in the crucial South Florida Spanish-language television market. Crucial, because whichever Republican presidential candidate draws the most Cuban-Americans to the polls for Florida’s January 29 primary is better positioned to win.

Cuban-Americans living in South Florida vote overwhelmingly Republican in presidential contests and turn out in high numbers. Political strategists say that in past GOP primaries for U.S. senate or governor’s races, when turnout is low elsewhere in the state, Cuban-Americans have comprised from 15 to 20 percent of voters statewide. Read more …

Giuliani’s Spanish-language TV Ad

Here’s the Giuliani campaign ad en español that begins airing today on at least three Spanish-language television stations in Miami (WLTV-Univision, WSCV-Telemundo, WJAN-AmericaTeVe). It is called Liderazgo (Leadership) and opens with a shot of the late president Ronald Reagan shaking Giuliani’s hand. The ad says Giuliani reduced crime, lowered taxes, created jobs and shrunk the bureaucracy in New York City. The ad closes with the assertion that he did it in New York and he can do it in Washington.

Read about how Giuliani is Gunning For Cuban-American Voters.

Guiliani Pursues Cuban-American Voters

From our Florida correspondent, Kirk Nielsen:

Giuliani Gunning For Cuban-American Votes

As the Huckabus rolled with increasing momentum from Iowa to New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani’s campaign acted as if the next major contest was in Florida. That state’s primary isn’t until January 29th. But Giuliani ads are slated to start airing this week in South Florida on independent America TeVe (Channel 41) and on Telemundo owned-and-operated station WSCV (Channel 51)., according to station executives. A third Spanish-language station in Miami, MegaTV, reported it was still in negotiations with the campaign.

Two other Republican candidates are considering joining the barrage. “We have been receiving inquiries from the Romney and the Ron Paul groups, and most likely you’ll be seeing them around very soon,” says Francisco Framil, national sales manager at AmericaTeVe, which claims the largest share of Cuban-American viewers in South Florida. Framil says he has contacted the Mike Huckabee campaign “but we haven’t received a formal request for information.” The latest tracking polls, released last month, showed Giuliani’s lead in Florida winnowing to only four to seven percentage points over Huckabee, with Romney and McCain behind them.

“I think Giuliani is trying to make a statement that he is going to stay in the competition even if he loses the first four primaries,” Framil observed, referring to the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. “Obviously if he loses Florida, I think he’s out of the race.”

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